System and method for inventory management and distribution

ABSTRACT

A system and method for inventory management is provided. An indication of a removal of a first resource at a first location is received, and a risk value associated with the first resource at the location is calculated. A determination is made if the risk value is less than a predetermined threshold, and a request to transfer a second resource from a second location to the first location is generated.

RELATED PROVISIONAL PATENT APPLICATION

This application claims priority to U.S. Provisional Patent ApplicationSer. No. 60/569,550, filed May 7, 2004, entitled Inventory PriorityControl System and Method, the entirety of which is hereby incorporatedby reference.

BACKGROUND

Many companies have facilities that require the usage of resources. Inmany instances, different facilities will have a different rate of usageof the resources. At times, a particular facility might have a fasterrate of usage and need additional resources, while a different facilitymight have a slower rate of usage and have a surplus of resources.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a diagram of an example embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is an example depiction of a donor list in accordance with oneembodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 depicts the operational flow of an embodiment of the presentinvention.

FIG. 4 depicts the operational flow of creating time between removalrecords in accordance with one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 depicts the operational flow of creating transit time records inaccordance with one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 depicts the operational flow of calculating the risk inaccordance with one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 depicts the operational flow of obtaining a time record inaccordance with one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 8 depicts the operational flow of calculating alpha, beta, andtheta values in accordance with one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 9 depicts the operational flow of updating the time betweenremovals values in accordance with one embodiment of the presentinvention.

FIG. 10 depicts the operational flow of updating transit time values inaccordance with one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 11 is a diagram of an example system for implementing an embodimentof the present invention.

FIG. 12 depicts the operational flow of an embodiment of the presentinvention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The following disclosure provides many different embodiments orexamples. Specific examples of components and arrangements are describedbelow to simplify the present disclosure. These are, of course, merelyexamples and are not intended to be limiting. In addition, the presentdisclosure may repeat reference numerals and/or letters in the variousexamples. This repetition is for the purpose of simplicity and clarityand does not in itself dictate a relationship between the variousembodiments and/or configurations discussed. Moreover, while many of theexamples provided below pertain to transactions often conducted in thecourse of airline industry business, aspects of the present disclosureare applicable and/or readily adaptable to other industries, includingrail, bus, cruise and other travel or shipping industries, rental carindustries, hotels and other hospitality industries, entertainmentindustries, and others.

Referring now to FIG. 1, an embodiment 10 of a system and method forinventory management and distribution is shown. System 10 contains afacility 12. Facilities can be any location that uses resources. In oneembodiment, a facility is a line station at an airport. In anotherembodiment, a facility is a sub-location at a line station at anairport. In a further embodiment, a line station has multiple locations.For example purposes, the system 10 contains four line stations 12 a, 12b, 12 c, and 12 d.

At each line station 12 are resources 14. Resources 14 are anything thatcan be used or consumed at a facility, whether individuals or parts. Forexample purposes, the resources 14 are parts used in commercialaircraft. In this example, each line station has a corresponding set ofparts 14 a, 14 b, 14 c, and 14 d.

The line stations are in communication with supply base 16. Supply base16 contains an inventory of resources 18 and resources 20. For examplespurposes, resources 18 and resources 20 are parts used in commercialaircraft. Parts 18 are parts that are either new or repaired. Parts 20are parts that are in need of maintenance or repair (rotable parts).

It is contemplated that parts 14, 18, and 20 can represent a single typeof part or multiple types of parts. In one embodiment, the parts 14, 18,and 20 each represent many types of parts that are differentiated bypart numbers. Part numbers can be assigned by manufacturers or by theuser of the parts. In one embodiment, parts can be assigned a companypart number (CPN).

Supply base 16 may also be in communication with external supplier 22.External supplier 22 can be provider of new resources. While only oneexternal supplier 22 is shown, it is contemplated that any number ofexternal suppliers could be used in conjunction with this embodiment.Additionally, external supplier could be in communication with theoperations system 24, as well as one or more line stations 12.

Each line station 12 is also in communication with an operations system24. In this embodiment, the operations system provides instructions tothe line stations 12 and supply base 16 about shipping parts to and fromthe supply base 16 and other line stations 12. Operations system 24 isalso in communication with an user interface 26 and an inventorymanagement system 28.

User interface 26 is capable of presenting different reports to a userof the system. Different reports could include backorders for parts,donor station lists, and distribution requests. In addition, userinterface 26 could be used to provide scenario information or externalinputs to change allocations of parts 14, 18, or 20. Further, userinterface 26 could alter or override redistribution of parts that may bedetermined by the inventory management system 28. In one embodiment, theability to override backorder priorities could be controlled based onuser authority profiles. In another embodiment, user interface 26 couldbe a web browser, and the communication link to operations system 24could be the Internet or an intranet.

In one embodiment, the inventory management system 28 is comprised of arisk module 30, an inventory database 32, a time between removal module34, and a transit time module 36.

Risk module 30 is capable of calculating risk values. Risk values caninclude the outage risk, the donor risk, and the resupply risk. Outagerisk represents the number of days until the probability of an outageexceeds a desired risk level. Donor risk represents the number of daysuntil the probability of an outage exceeds a desired risk level if apart is removed from a station. Resupply risk represents the number ofdays until the probability of an outage exceeds a desired risk levelwhen a part is added to a station. In one embodiment, an outage can meanthat there are no parts at a line station. In another embodiment, anoutage can mean that there are no parts at a line station and the linestation needs a part. In another embodiment, an outage can mean that thenumber of parts in inventory at a line station are below an acceptablenumber. Desired risk level is a predefined threshold for the acceptableprobability of an outage. The desired risk level can be set on a linestation by line station basis or across the entire system.

Risk module 30 may also calculate risk values on a periodic basis orbased on other triggering events within a line station or the system.Risk module 30 is also capable of communicating with inventory database32. When a part 18 becomes available at supply base 16 or an externalsupplier 22, risk module 30 is capable of determining which line station12 should receive the part 18. Additionally, when a part 14 at a linestation 12 is needed at a different line station 12, risk module 30 iscapable of determining which line station 12 should transfer its part 14to the line station 12 in need of that part 14.

Inventory database 32 contains records regarding parts 14, new parts 18and rotable parts 20. Inventory database 32 can also contain informationregarding the risk for each part 14 at each line station 12 of thatparticular line station 12 needing an additional part 14. In oneembodiment, the inventory database contains a TBR Table for storing timebetween removal data and a TT Table for storing transit time data.

Transit time module 34 communicates with the inventory database 32 todetermine the expected length of time that a particular part would needto transfer from its departure point to a destination point. Thedeparture point could be any line station 12, supply base 16 or externalsupplier 22. The destination point could be supply base 16, any linestation 12, or external supplier 22. Transit time module 34 is alsocapable of generating a transit time record.

Time between removal module 36 communicates with inventory database 32to calculate the length of time between the removal of a part at astation and a subsequent removal of the same type of part at thestation. Time between removal module 36 is also capable of generating atime between removal record.

Referring now to FIG. 2, an example depiction of a donor list 40 thatcan be generated using the records in inventory database 32 (FIG. 1) isshown. Donor list 40 shows the line stations 42, the part 44, theassociated donor risk 46 for part 44 at that the line station 42, andthe desired risk level percentage 48 for part 44 at that line station42. Using the sample data 50 shown in FIG. 2, if the Dallas/Fort Worth102W line station was a donor of part 34BZ6, it would drop below thedesired risk level percentage of 92% in 10 days, while if the La Guardia86B line station was a donor of part 34BZ6, it would drop below itsdesired risk level percentage of 85% in 9 days. Since the Dallas/FortWorth line station has the longest time before it would drop below itsdesired risk level percentage if it was a donor, this line station wouldbe selected to donate one of its part 44 to the station with anunacceptable outage risk. In addition to FIG. 2, the donor list can alsoinclude a donor threshold, donor risk, critical threshold, time betweenremoval value, transit time value, on hand quantity, and allocation forall the stations for the particular part where the parts at a linestation are greater than zero.

FIG. 3 refers to an operational flow 300 of an embodiment of the presentinvention. At step 302, a part is removed from a line station. Removalmeans that the part has been consumed by the line station to be placedinto production. In another embodiment, scenario scripts can be used totest and verify different allocations and needs at line stations tosimulate removals.

At step 304, the line station sends a message to the operations systemindicating that a part was removed. In one embodiment, the message tothe operations system contains information about the line station andthe part number associated with the part.

At step 306, the operations system sends a message to the inventorymanagement system that the part was removed from the line station. Theinventory management system receives a part number for the part, theon-hand quantity remaining at the line station, and the date/time stampof when the part was removed.

In one embodiment, the communication between the operations system andinventory management system is conducted using an extensible markuplanguage (XML). The communication between the operations system andinventory management system may use six logical queues, where two queuescan provide asynchronous messages from each system, two queues can beused for the request and reply messages from the inventory managementsystem, and two queues can be used for the request and reply messagesfrom the operations system.

At step 308, the time between removal value for that part at the linestation is updated. The time between removal value is the time thatelapses between the removal of a first part from a line station and aremoval of a second of the same part from the same line station. Inanother embodiment, the time between removal value can also be a seriesof averages.

At step 310, it is determined whether the particular type of part thatwas removed from the line station is permitted or able to be distributedfrom another line station or the base station. In certain embodiments,it may be desirable that certain parts not be permitted to bedistributed. If the part is not capable of being distributed in thismanner, the process ends. If the part is able to be distributed, theprocess continues to step 312.

At step 312, one or more risk values for the part at that line stationare calculated. In this particular embodiment, the risk values arecalculated when there is a removal from the inventory (on hand quantity)of the part at the line station. The risk values could also becalculated when there is any change in the on hand quantity of the partat the line station.

At step 314, the outage risk is compared against a predeterminedcritical threshold. In one embodiment, the critical threshold is theminimum number of days that a line station can have until it receives apart from the supply base. If the risk is greater than the criticalthreshold, then the risk of running out of the part at that line stationis at an acceptable level, and no further action is taken. If the riskis less than the critical threshold, then the number of parts at theline station is insufficient to prevent the line station from runningout of parts before it receives a part replenishment from the supplybase. In another embodiment, the critical threshold is the riskpercentage that a line station will run out of a part within a giventime frame. The risk among the line stations, at the end of the giventime frame, is compared.

At step 316, a donor list is generated. The donor list is a list of linestations and the parts in inventory at those line stations, and thecorrelating donor risk of the part of that line station. In oneembodiment, the donor list is ranked according to the donor risk. In oneembodiment, the donor risk is the risk calculation using onhand quantityminus one in place of onhand quantity in the applicable equations, asdescribed in more detail below. In one embodiment, all line stations canbe included in the donor list. In another embodiment, line stations mayhave a corresponding donor flag that indicates whether the station ispermitted to be a donor station, and only those line stations permittedto be a donor station are included on the donor list.

At step 318, the donor station is selected. In one embodiment, the donorstation would be the line station with the highest number of days withthe highest risk value (e.g., the most number of days until the linestation's probability of an outage is less than the line station'scustomer service level). In another embodiment, the donor station wouldbe the line station with the highest number of days until that linestations runs out of the part less the transit time for the part to beshipped from the donor station to the line station needing the part. Inan additional embodiment, the donor station could be the main supplybase. In such an embodiment, restrictions could be placed so that themain supply base is selected only when the need for a part reaches acritical threshold.

At step 320, the inventory management system sends a request for thepart to be transferred from the selected donor station. In oneembodiment, the request can be sent to the operations system, and theoperations system communicates with the donor station and requeststransfer of the part from the donor station to the line station needingthe part. In one embodiment, the messages to the operations system mayutilize eight physical queues.

At step 322, the donor station receives the request and ships the partto the line station needing the part. In another embodiment, the part istransferred to the main supply base, and then routed to the destinationline station. At step 324, the risk of running out of the part isre-calculated for the donor station and the line station that receivesthe part.

In another embodiment, an analysis of the risk over the entire systemcan be run before an outage occurs at any station. In this embodiment,the risk can be used to determine if an outage of one part at anystation causes a problem because even though all stations may currentlyhave sufficient stock, none of the stations would be able to becomedonors without themselves becoming critical.

In an additional embodiment, the inventory management system can queryto determine if the redistribution of the part from the donor station tothe line station has successfully occurred. In some cases, this querycan be performed every two hours. Additionally, if twenty-four hours haselapsed, or another predetermined time period, the inventory managementsystem can send a message to the operations system to cancel the partredistribution and create a new request for a part to be shipped fromanother station on the donor list.

Referring now to FIG. 4, an example operational flow 400 of creatingtime records is shown. At step 402, records pertaining to the part areretrieved from the inventory database. In one embodiment, the recordscontain the actual time between removal for the part at a line station.

At step 404, the mean value of the actual time between removal valuesfor the part is calculated. In one embodiment, three different meanvalues are calculated in accordance with the following:

-   -   Smooth mean TBR=mean (all actual TBR)    -   Smooth mean TBR2=mean (all actual TBR)2    -   Smooth mean TBR3=mean (all actual TBR)3    -   Minimum TBR=min (all actual TBR)    -   TBR obs count=number of actual TBR values        Where:

All actual TBR are all of the time values between when a type of partwas removed from a particular line station and when a subsequent part ofthe same type was removed from the same line station.

At step 406, alpha, beta, and theta values are calculated. The alpha,beta, and theta values are the standard parameters used when calculatinga gamma distribution equation. At step 408, the mean TBR value (or meanvalues smooth mean TBR, smooth mean TBR2, smooth mean TBR3, and minimumTBR), TBR obs count, alpha value, beta value, and theta value for thepart are stored in the inventory database.

The time between removal values could be updated on a periodic basis. Inone embodiment, when the time between removal values are updated, eachpart number at each line station is updated.

Referring now to FIG. 5, an example operational flow 500 of creatingtransit time records is shown. At step 502, records pertaining to thepart are retrieved from the inventory database. In one embodiment, therecords contain the actual transit time for transferring a part from themain supply base to a particular line station and from each line stationto each of the other line stations. Transit time can also include thetime required for a part to be transferred from an external supplier tothe line station, from an external supplier to the main supply base, orfrom an external supplier to the main supply base and then to the linestation.

At step 504, the mean value of the actual transit time values for thepart is calculated. In one embodiment, three different mean values arecalculated in accordance with the following:

-   -   smooth mean TT=mean (all actual TT)    -   smooth mean TT2=mean (all actual TT)²    -   smooth mean TT3=mean (all actual TT)³    -   minimum TT=min (All Actual TT)    -   TT obs count=number of actual TT values        Where:

All actual TT are all of the time values for transferring a part fromthe main supply base or external supplier to a particular line stationand from each line station to each of the other line stations.

These calculations generate the mean values using all actual transittime values. In one embodiment, only those actual TT values during theprevious two years of data are used for the calculations. However, inother embodiments, different amounts of historical transit time valuescan be used.

At step 506, alpha, beta, and theta values are calculated. The alpha,beta, and theta values are the standard parameters used when calculatinga gamma distribution equation. At step 508, the mean transit time value(or mean values smooth mean TT, smooth mean TT2, smooth mean TT3, andminimum TT), TT obs count, alpha value, beta value, and theta value forthe part are stored in the inventory database.

The transit time values could also be updated on a periodic basis. Inone embodiment, when the transit time values are updated, each transittime value of transferring a part from the main supply base to aparticular line station and from each line station to each of the otherline stations is updated.

Referring now to FIG. 6, an example operational flow 600 of calculatingrisk values, such as outage risk, donor risk, and resupply risk, isshown. In one embodiment, risk is calculated when a part is removed froma line station. In another embodiment, risk can be calculated when a newpart or repaired part appears at a line station. In an additionalembodiment, risk can be calculated whenever the inventory at a linestation (the onhand quantity) is changed. In a further embodiment, therisk can be calculated for any line station that has not beenrecalculated within a particular time frame. In yet another embodiment,that time frame could be twenty-four hours. The different risk valuescan be calculated by adjusting the appropriate on-hand quantityparameter to reflect the type of risk value being calculated.

At step 602, the time record for a part at a line station is retrievedfrom the inventory database. In one embodiment, the time record containsthe override TBR value, the override TBR date range, the time of lastremoval for a part, alpha value, beta value, theta value, and the meanTBR from the TBR table. If no time record exists for the part at thatstation, then a default record can be used.

At step 604, the transit time record for the part at a line station isretrieved from the inventory database. In one embodiment, the transittime record contains the override TT value, the override TT date range,alpha value, beta value, and theta value from the TT table.

At step 606, the amount of parts in transit and the on-hand quantity forthe applicable line station is obtained from the inventory database. Atstep 608, the time since last removal (TSLR) is calculated. In oneembodiment, the TSLR is the difference between the current time and thetime of last removal for the part at that station.

At step 610, certain variables used in calculating the risk areinitialized, depending on the equations to be used in calculating therisk. In one embodiment, the following variables are used andinitialized as follows:

-   SUM1=0-   SUMSQE=0-   N1=500-   N2=30-   E=0.5-   Q2=0.05-   P1=[100−desired risk level]/100-   CAP=200-   Default TT=3

At step 612, the method determines whether there are acceptable TBR andTT values in the time record. In one embodiment, acceptable values forTBR would be an override TBR value greater than 0 or a global defaultTBR value greater than 0, and an override TT value greater than 0 or aglobal default TT value greater than 0. If there are acceptable TBR andTT values in the time record, then the process proceeds to step 614.Otherwise, the process proceeds to step 616.

At step 614, the risk is calculated using the override risk calculation.In one embodiment, the override risk calculation is the followingequation:Risk=max(TBR-TSLR,0)+max(TSLR-alpha*TBR,0)+TBR*OHT−OTTWhere:

-   -   alpha is an user defined value (in one embodiment, alpha=1)    -   OHT=Max[on hand quantity, 0]+Max[parts in        transit,0]*Max{Max[((TBR−(0.5*TT))/override TBR),0],0.5}. OHT        represents the onhand quantity and the number of parts in        transit. In this embodiment, the number in parts in transit is a        weighted value.    -   TBR=override TBR (or global default TBR). In one embodiment, the        override value is preferred over the global default value.    -   TT=override TT (or global default TT). In one embodiment, the        override value is preferred over the global default value.

At this point, the risk has been calculated.

At step 616 (where there were not acceptable TBR or TT values), the riskis calculated using simulation. In one embodiment, risk can becalculated using simulation as shown by the following pseudo-code:

-   T=TSLR-   OHT=Max[on hand quantity,0]+Max[parts in transit,0]*Max{Max[((smooth    mean TBR−(0.5*TT))/smooth mean TBR), 0],0.5}-   Q1=random number different from S1-   S1=random number different from S2-   S2=random number different from Q1-   CdfGamma=the value returned by the cumulative distribution function    using the values: alpha value for the TBR, beta value for the TBR,    and T-theta value for the TBR.-   InvGammal=INV.GAMMA{[Q1*(1−CdfGamma)+CdfGamma], alpha value for the    TBR}-   InvGamma2=INV.GAMMA (S1, alpha value for the TT)-   InvGamma3=INV.GAMMA (S2, OHT*alpha value for the TBR)-   Zi=beta value for the TBR*InvGamma3+OHT*theta value for the TBR-   X_(i)=theta value for the TBR+beta value for the TBR*InvGammal−T-   Temp14=theta value for TT+beta value for TT*InvGamma2-   If Temp14 is greater than 14 then:    -   TT_(i)=smooth mean TT-   If Temp14 is not greater than 14 then:    -   TT_(i)=Temp 14    -   Risk_(i)=X_(i)+Z_(i)−TT_(i)    -   SUM1=SUM1+CT_(i)

The value of 14 that Temp14 is compared against is used to preventtransit times greater than 14 days. This value could be modified asdesired to limit transit times of varying durations. INV.GAMMArepresents the inverse gamma distribution equation.

At step 618, a sample distribution is determined. In one embodiment, thesample distribution can be determined by repeating the risk calculationas described in step 618 a number of times (N1). Each iteration of therisk calculation stores the X_(i), Z_(i), TT_(i) and Risk_(i) values.The values can be sorted by ascending value of Risk_(i). Theith=[N1*P1]th is also stored.

At step 620, the revised risk value is determined. In one embodiment,the revised risk value is the Risk_(i) value determined in the riskcalculation. In another embodiment, step 618 can be repeated a number oftime (N2) and the revised risk value can be the SUM(Risk_(i))/N2. In afurther embodiment, step 618 can be repeated N2times, where Q1, S1, andS2 have different respective values in each iteration, and the revisedrisk value can be the SUM(Risk_(i))/N2.

At step 622, the margin of error for the revised risk value iscalculated. In one embodiment, sum of square errors within the storedvalues is calculated and then the standard deviation is determined usingthe following equations:SUMSQE=SUMSQE+(Risk_(i)−revised risk value)²S=Square Root of {SUMSQE/N2*(N2−1)}

At step 624, the number of repetitions of the risk calculations thatneed to be performed to reduce the error value to less than a threshold(NReps) is determined. In one embodiment, the threshold represents anumber of days. In this embodiment, the error is the E value (0.5).NReps=MIN{ROUND[(TINVERSE(Q2,(N2−1)*S/E)², CAP}

At step 626, the method determines whether the number of neededrepetitions, NReps, is less than N2. If so, then the revised risk valueis used as the risk score and the process ends. If the number ofrepetitions, NReps, is not less than N2, then the method proceeds tostep 628.

At step 628, the previous steps are repeated until the N2 equals NRepsand the revised risk value that is calculated is calculated on the basisof all of the Risk_(i) values.

Referring now to FIG. 7 is a example flowchart 602 of obtaining a timerecord using a time between removal (TBR) value in one embodiment of thepresent invention. At step 702, a record associated with a particularlocation is attempted to be retrieved. At step 704, the methoddetermines whether a record was able to be retrieved. If no recordmatched the particular location, the method proceeds to step 710. If arecord matched the particular location, the method proceeds to step 706.

At step 706, it is determined whether the record contains non-nullvalues for alpha, beta, and theta. If alpha, beta, and theta havevalues, the method proceeds to step 708. If alpha, beta, and theta arenull, the method proceeds to step 710.

At step 708, the number of observations in the record is reviewed. Ifthe number of observations is less than a particular threshold, then themethod proceeds to step 710. If the number of observations exceed thethreshold, then the current values contained in the record can be usedin the risk calculation. In one embodiment, the threshold can be 5.

At step 710, a default record is retrieved. In one embodiment, defaultrecords can be located based on a part at a particular location or basedon the part alone. In another embodiment, the distribution isapproximated based on the history of a similar station, or the systemlevel usage pattern.

At step 712, the method determines if a default record was successfullyretrieved. If not, then the method proceeds to step 714. If a defaultrecord was successfully retrieved, then the current values in thedefault record can be used in the risk calculation.

At step 714, the override TBR value from the TBR table is retrieved, andthis value is used in the risk calculation.

Referring now to FIG. 8, is an example flowchart 800 of calculatingalpha, beta, and theta values in one embodiment of the presentinvention. At step 802, the mean values associated with the TBR for alocation and associated with the TT for a location are retrieved.

At step 804, the variation is calculated using the following equation:Var=smooth mean TBR2−(smooth mean TBR)²

At step 806, the method determines whether Var is greater than 0 andthat Var is not an empty value. If so, then method proceeds to step 810.If not, then the method proceeds to step 808.

At step 808, the alpha, beta, and theta values cannot be calculated andare marked as missing.

At step 810, the following calculations are performed:

-   -   Num=smooth mean TBR3−(3*smooth mean TBR2*smooth mean        TBR)+2*(smooth mean TBR)³    -   Denom=VAR^(3/2)    -   Gamma1=Num/Denom    -   SD=Square Root (Var)

At step 812, the method determines whether Gamma1>0 and that Gamma1 isnot an empty value. If so, the method proceeds to step 814. If not, themethod proceeds to step 816.

At step 814, alpha, beta, and theta are calculated as follows:

-   -   alpha=(smooth mean TBR)²/Var    -   beta=Var/smooth mean TBR    -   theta=0

At step 816, alpha, beta, and theta are calculated as follows:

-   -   alpha=4/Gamma1²    -   beta=(SD*Gamma1)/2    -   theta=Max[Min[smooth mean TBR−(2*SD/Gamma1), minimum TBR), 0)

At step 818, the alpha, beta, and theta values are communicated to therequesting module.

While the calculations and formulas shown in FIG. 8 use the valuesrelated to TBR, it is contemplated that the alpha, beta, and thetavalues can be calculated for TT using the same steps and replacing theTBR mean values with the corresponding TT mean values.

Referring now to FIG. 9, an example flowchart 900 of updating the TimeBetween Removals value in an embodiment of the present invention isshown. At step 902, the mean time between removal values for a part at aline station are retrieved. In one embodiment, the smooth mean TBR,smooth mean TBR2, smooth mean TBR3, min TBR, current actual TBR, obscount, current removal date and time for the part at a line station areretrieved. In another embodiment, if there is no mean values for thepart at a line station or the obs count value is null, then the TBRcannot be calculated, but the removal date and time of removal arestored in a new record with a null TBR value and an obs count=0.

At step 904, the new actual TBR is calculated. In one embodiment, thenew actual TBR is calculated using the following equation:New actual TBR=(new removal date−current removal date)+(new removaltime−current removal time)

At step 906, the current obs count value is compared against apredetermined threshold value. In one embodiment, the threshold valuecan be 4. Additional threshold values could be used in order to obtain asufficient number of observations to provide an accurate value for usein the calculations. If the current obs count value is less than thethreshold value, the method proceeds to step 908. If the obs count valuewas greater than or equal to the threshold value, the method continuesto step 910.

At step 908, the Time Between Removals values are calculated inaccordance with the following equations:New smooth mean TBR=(obs count)/(obs count+1)*smooth mean TBR+1/(obscount+1)*new actual TBRNew smooth mean TBR2=(obs count)/(obs count+1)*smooth mean TBR2+1/(obscount+1)*new actual TBR²New smooth mean TBR3=(obs count)/obs count+1)*smooth mean TBR3+1/(obscount+1)*new actual TBR³New minimum TBR=min [minimum TBR, new actual TBR]

At step 910, the Time Between Removals values are calculated inaccordance with the following equations:Smoothing Alpha (SA)=0.2New smooth mean TBR=(1−SA)*smooth mean TBR+SA*new actual TBRNew smooth mean TBR2=(1−SA)*smooth mean TBR2+SA*new actual TBR²New smooth mean TBR3=(1−SA)*smooth mean TBR3+SA*new actual TBR³New minimum TBR=Min (minimum TBR, new actual TBR)

At step 912, the obs count value is incremented by one. At step 914, thealpha, beta, and theta values are calculated.

At step 916, the new Time Between Removals values, new actual TBR,minimum TBR, alpha, beta, theta, obs count and new current removal dateand time values are stored in the TBR Table.

Referring now to FIG. 10 an example flowchart 1000 of updating theTransit Time value in an embodiment of the present invention is shown.

At step 1002, the new actual TT value is calculated. In one embodiment,the New Actual TT value is calculated using the following equation:New Actual TT=(receipt date−ship date)+(receipt time−receipt time)

At step 1004, the mean transit time values for a part at a line stationare retrieved. In one embodiment, the smooth mean TT, smooth mean TT2,smooth mean TT3, minimum TT, and obs count for the part at a linestation are retrieved. In another embodiment, the values for the part atthe supply base can be retrieved.

At step 1006, the current obs count value is compared against apredetermined threshold value. In one embodiment, the threshold valuecan be 4. Additional threshold values could be used in order to obtain asufficient number of observations to provide an accurate value for usein the calculations. If the current obs count value is less than thethreshold value, the method proceeds to step 1008. If the obs countvalue was greater than or equal to the threshold value, the methodcontinues to step 1010.

At step 1008, the transit time values are calculated in accordance withthe following equations:New smooth mean TT=(obs count)/(obs count+1)*smooth mean TT+1/(obscount+1)*New Actual TTNew smooth mean TT2=(obs count)/(obs count+1)*smooth mean TT2+1/(obscount+1)*New Actual TT²New smooth mean TT3=(obs count)/obs count+1)*smooth mean TT3+1/(obscount+1)*New Actual TT³New minimum TT=min [minimum TT, new actual TT]

At step 1010, the transit time values are calculated in accordance withthe following equations:Smoothing Alpha (SA)=0.2New smooth mean TT=(1−SA)*smooth mean TT+SA*New Actual TTNew smooth mean TT2=(1−SA)*smooth mean TT2+SA*New Actual TT²New smooth mean TT3=(1−SA)*smooth mean TT3+SA*New Actual TT³New minimum TT=Min (minimum TT, new actual TT)

At step 1012, the obs count value is incremented by one. At step 1014,the alpha, beta, and theta values are calculated.

At step 1016, the new transit time values, minimum TT, alpha, beta,theta, and obs count are stored in the TT Table.

It will also be understood by those having skill in the art that one ormore (including all) of the elements/steps of the present invention maybe implemented using software executed on a general purpose computersystem or networked computer systems, using special purposehardware-based computer systems, or using combinations of specialpurpose hardware and software. Referring to FIG. 11, an illustrativenode 100 for implementing an embodiment of the method is depicted. Node100 includes a microprocessor 102, an input device 104, a storage device106, a video controller 108, a system memory 110, and a display 114, anda communication device 116 all interconnected by one or more buses 112.The storage device 106 could be a floppy drive, hard drive, CD-ROM,optical drive, or any other form of storage device. In addition, thestorage device 106 may be capable of receiving a floppy disk, CD-ROM,DVD-ROM, or any other form of computer-readable medium that may containcomputer-executable instructions. Further communication device 116 couldbe a modem, network card, or any other device to enable the node tocommunicate with other nodes. It is understood that any node couldrepresent a plurality of interconnected (whether by intranet orInternet) computer systems, including without limitation, personalcomputers, mainframes, PDAs, and cell phones.

A computer system typically includes at least hardware capable ofexecuting machine readable instructions, as well as the software forexecuting acts (typically machine-readable instructions) that produce adesired result. In addition, a computer system may include hybrids ofhardware and software, as well as computer sub-stems.

Hardware generally includes at least processor-capable platforms, suchas client-machines (also known as personal computers or servers), andhand-held processing devices (such as smart phones, personal digitalassistants (PDAs), or personal computing devices (PCDs), for example).Further, hardware may include any physical device that is capable ofstoring machine-readable instructions, such as memory or other datastorage devices. Other forms of hardware include hardware sub-systems,including transfer devices such as modems, modem cards, ports, and portcards, for example.

Software includes any machine code stored in any memory medium, such asRAM or ROM, and machine code stored on other devices (such as floppydisks, flash memory, or a CD ROM, for example). Software may includesource or object code, for example. In addition, software encompassesany set of instructions capable of being executed in a client machine orserver.

Combinations of software and hardware could also be used for providingenhanced functionality and performance for certain embodiments of thedisclosed invention. One example is to directly manufacture softwarefunctions into a silicon chip. Accordingly, it should be understood thatcombinations of hardware and software are also included within thedefinition of a computer system and are thus envisioned by the inventionas possible equivalent structures and equivalent methods.

Computer-readable mediums include passive data storage, such as a randomaccess memory (RAM) as well as semi-permanent data storage such as acompact disk read only memory (CD-ROM). In addition, an embodiment ofthe invention may be embodied in the RAM of a computer to transform astandard computer into a new specific computing machine.

Data structures are defined organizations of data that may enable anembodiment of the invention. For example, a data structure may providean organization of data, or an organization of executable code. Datasignals could be carried across transmission mediums and store andtransport various data structures, and, thus, may be used to transportan embodiment of the invention.

The system may be designed to work on any specific architecture. Forexample, the system may be executed on a single computer, local areanetworks, client-server networks, wide area networks, internets,hand-held and other portable and wireless devices and networks.

A database may be any standard or proprietary database software, such asOracle, Microsoft Access, SyBase, or DBase II, for example. The databasemay have fields, records, data, and other database elements that may beassociated through database specific software. Additionally, data may bemapped. Mapping is the process of associating one data entry withanother data entry. For example, the data contained in the location of acharacter file can be mapped to a field in a second table. The physicallocation of the database is not limiting, and the database may bedistributed. For example, the database may exist remotely from theserver, and run on a separate platform. Further, the database may beaccessible across the Internet. Note that more than one database may beimplemented.

FIG. 12 refers to an operational flow 1200 of an embodiment of thepresent invention. At step 1202, a part becomes available at a supplybase or from an external supplier. At step 1204, the outage risk valuesassociated with that type of part are retrieved for any line stationthat uses that type of part. At step 1206, the outage risk values areanalyzed to determine which line station has the lowest number of daysuntil its desired risk level drops below an acceptable level for thatline station. At step 1208, the inventory management system sends arequest for the part to be transferred to the selected station. In oneembodiment, the request can be sent to the operations system, and theoperations system communicates with the source of the part and requeststransfer of the part to the selected line station. At step 1210, sourceof the part receives the request and ships the part to the line stationneeding the part. In another embodiment, the part is transferred to themain supply base, and then routed to the destination line station.

In another embodiment, where different types of parts need to beserviced or repaired, whether at a line station, supply base, or anexternal supplier, the outage risk for each type of part at each linestation and the resupply risk for each type of part at each line stationcould be retrieved. By analyzing the current outage risk and then theresupply risk, the type of parts could be sorted to reflect the order inwhich each type of part should be repaired.

In one embodiment, a method for inventory management comprises receivingan indication of a removal of a first resource at a first location,calculating a risk value associated with the first resource at thelocation, determining if the risk value is less than a predeterminedthreshold, and generating a request to transfer a second resource from asecond location to the first location.

In another embodiment, a method for inventory management comprisesgenerating a time record that is associated with one of a type ofresource at one of a plurality of locations, generating a transit timerecord that is associated with one of a type of resource at one of aplurality of locations, and calculating a plurality of risk values,wherein each one of the plurality of risk values is associated with oneof each type of resource at each of the plurality of locations.

In a further embodiment, a computer-readable medium comprises a seriesof instructions for execution by at least one computer processor,wherein the instructions are for calculating a risk value associatedwith the number of resources at each of a plurality of locations,receiving notice of a removal of a first resource at a first one of theplurality of locations, calculating a risk value based on the remaininginventory of first resources at the first one of the plurality oflocations, determining if the risk value is less than a predeterminedthreshold, generating a list of a plurality of locations that have aninventory of first resources, and generating a request to transfer asecond resource from the inventory of first resources at a second one ofthe plurality of locations based on a second risk value based on theinventory of first resources at the second one of the plurality oflocations.

In yet another embodiment, a system for inventory management comprises aplurality of locations capable of communicating with an operationssystem, a risk module capable of generating risk values associated witha plurality of parts located at each of the plurality of locations, atime between removal module capable of communicating with the riskmodule that generates time records, and a transit time module capable ofcommunicating with the risk module that generates transit time records.

In an additional embodiment, a system for inventory management comprisesmeans for calculating a risk value associated with the number ofresources at each of a plurality of locations, means for receivingnotice of a removal of a first resource at a first one of the pluralityof locations, means for calculating a risk value based on the remaininginventory of first resources at the first one of the plurality oflocations, means for determining if the risk value is less than apredetermined threshold, means for generating a list of a plurality oflocations that have an inventory of first resources, and means forgenerating a request to transfer a second resource from the inventory offirst resources at a second one of the plurality of locations based on asecond risk value based on the inventory of first resources at thesecond one of the plurality of locations.

While the examples and naming conventions used herein have been relatedto air travel, it is understood that the system and method for adaptiveforecasting could be used in any form of travel or logistics industry,including the rail industry, cruise industry, shipping industry, and bustravel. The foregoing has outlined features of several embodiments sothat those skilled in the art may better understand the detaileddescription that follows. Those skilled in the art should appreciatethat they may readily use the present disclosure as a basis fordesigning or modifying other processes and structures for carrying outthe same purposes and/or achieving the same advantages of theembodiments introduced herein. Those skilled in the art should alsorealize that such equivalent constructions do not depart from the spiritand scope of the present disclosure, and that they may make variouschanges, substitutions and alterations herein without departing from thespirit and scope of the present disclosure.

1. A method for inventory management, comprising: generating a timerecord that is associated with one of a type of resource at one of aplurality of locations, comprising: obtaining, with an inventorymanagement system, at least one time between removal mean valueassociated with a removal of a resource from an inventory of theresource at the one of the plurality of locations, the inventorymanagement system comprising a node comprising a microprocessor and amemory operably coupled to the microprocessor, the memory containing aplurality of computer-executable instructions, the resource comprising apart consumed in an industry, the time between removal mean valueequaling the mean of a plurality of first time values stored in theinventory management system, each first time value in the plurality offirst time values equaling the time elapsed between a removal of a partfrom the inventory and a next removal of another part from the inventorysubsequent to the first-mentioned removal; generating a transit timerecord that is associated with the one of the type of resource at theone of the plurality of locations, comprising: obtaining, with theinventory management system, at least one transit time mean valueassociated with transferring a part to be included in the inventory, thetransit time mean value equaling the mean of a plurality of second timevalues stored in the inventory system, each second time value in theplurality of second time values equaling the time elapsed during thetransfer of a part from a location other than the one of the pluralitylocations to the inventory at the one of the plurality locations; inresponse to generating at least the time and the transit time recordsassociated with the one of the type of resource at the one of theplurality of locations, calculating a plurality of risk values with theinventory management system wherein each one of the plurality of riskvalues is associated with one of each type of resource at each of theplurality of locations, comprising: calculating a first risk valueassociated with the one of the type of resource at the one of theplurality of locations, comprising: calculating an amount of time untilthe probability of an outage of all of the parts from the inventoryexceeds a desired risk level; and managing the inventory of the parts atthe one of the plurality of locations by at least communicating arequest that one or more parts at one or more locations other than theone of the plurality of locations be transferred to the inventory at theone of the plurality of locations.
 2. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising: receiving notice of a removal of a first resource at a firstone of the plurality of locations; calculating a second risk valueassociated with the number of resources of the type of the firstresource at the first one of the plurality of locations; determining ifthe second risk value is less than a predetermined threshold; retrievinga series of risk values from the plurality of risk values, wherein therisk values in the series of risk values are associated with the type ofresource of the first resource; comparing the risk values in the seriesof risk values; and generating a request to transfer a second resourcefrom a second one of the plurality of locations to the first one of theplurality of locations.
 3. The method of claim 2, wherein calculating asecond risk value associated with the number of resources of the type ofthe first resource at the first one of the plurality of locationscomprises: calculating the second risk value using an override riskcalculation.
 4. The method of claim 3, wherein calculating the secondrisk value using an override risk calculation comprises: obtaining atime record that is associated with one of the type of the firstresource at the first one of the plurality of locations; obtaining atransit time record that is associated with the one of the type of thefirst resource at the first one of the plurality of locations; obtaininga number of resources of the type of the first resource in transit tothe first one of the plurality of locations; obtaining an amount ofresources at the first one of the plurality of locations, wherein theresources are of the type of the first resource; and determining ifthere is: a valid time between removal value in the time record that isassociated with the one of the type of the first resource at the firstone of the plurality of locations and a valid transit time in thetransit time record that is associated with the one of the type of thefirst resource at the first one of the plurality of locations; whereincalculating a plurality of risk values with the inventory managementsystem further comprises: if there is a valid time between removal valueand a valid transit time value, then calculating a risk value that isassociated with the one of the type of the first resource at the firstone of the plurality of locations using an override risk calculation. 5.The method of claim 2, wherein calculating a plurality of risk valueswith the inventory management system further comprises: calculating asecond risk value associated with the number of resources of the one ofthe type of the first resource at the first one of the plurality oflocations, comprising: calculating the second risk value usingsimulation.
 6. The method of claim 5, wherein calculating the secondrisk value using simulation comprises: obtaining a number of resourcesof the one of the type of the first resource in transit to the first oneof the plurality of locations; and obtaining an amount of resources atthe first one of the plurality of locations, wherein the resources areof the one of the type of resource of the first resource; whereincalculating a plurality of risk values with the inventory managementsystem further comprises: if there is not a valid time between removalvalue or a valid transit time value, then: generating a second series ofrisk values; calculating a revised risk value associated with the riskvalues in the second series; calculating an error value associated withthe revised risk value; calculating a desired number of risk valuesusing the error value; calculating additional risk values to form athird series of risk values such that the number of risk values in thesecond series and the number of risk values in the third series totalthe desired number of risk values; and recalculating the revised riskvalue using the risk values in the second series and the risk values inthe third series.
 7. The method of claim 1, wherein generating the timerecord that is associated with the one of the type of resource at theone of the plurality of locations further comprises: calculating anactual time between removal value associated with a removal of theresource at the one of the plurality of locations; determining if anumber of observations of the removal of the resource exceeds athreshold; if the number of observations exceeds the threshold,calculating a new at least one time between removal mean value using theactual time between removal value and a smoothing constant; and if thenumber of observations does not exceed the threshold, calculating a newat least one time between removal mean value using the actual timebetween removal value and a percentage of the number of observations. 8.The method of claim 1, wherein generating the transit time record thatis associated with the one of the type of resource at the one of aplurality of locations further comprises: calculating an actual transittime value associated with transferring the resource; determining if anumber of observations of the transfer of the resource exceeds athreshold; if the number of observations exceeds the threshold,calculating a new at least one transit time mean value using the actualtransit time value and a smoothing constant; and if the number ofobservations does not exceed the threshold, calculating a new at leastone transit time mean value using the actual transit time value and apercentage of the number of observations.
 9. The method of claim 1,further comprising: receiving an indication that a first resource isavailable at a first one of the plurality of locations; retrieving aseries of risk values from the plurality of risk values, wherein therisk values in the series of risk values are associated with the type ofresource of the first resource; comparing the risk values in the seriesof risk values; and generating a request to transfer the first resourceto a second one of the plurality of locations.
 10. The method of claim1, further comprising: retrieving a series of risk values from theplurality of risk values, wherein the risk values in the series of riskvalues are associated with at least two types of resources; comparingthe risk values in the series of risk values; generating a request totake action on a resource of the type of one of the at least two typesof resources.
 11. The method of claim 10, wherein generating a requestto take action on a resource of the type of one of the at least twotypes of resources generates a request to repair a resource.